Illinois May Be The Worst Democratic Gerrymander In The Country
The worst Democratic gerrymander in the region is arguably in Illinois, as it set off a significant-stakes match of musical chairs between the state’s five Republican House users.
Nathaniel Rakich: A single of our best presidents, Abraham Lincoln, was a Republican from Illinois. But the state’s new gerrymandered congressional map would seem hell-bent on making Republican congressmen from Illinois an endangered species.
There are currently 5 Republicans in Illinois’s U.S. Property delegation. But that was evidently also lots of for the Democrats who have been in cost of Illinois redistricting past slide. They drew a map that packed all five Republicans into just three congressional districts.
That kicked off a substantial-stakes recreation of electoral musical chairs. At very first, Congressman Mike Bost and Congresswoman Mary Miller were being thrown jointly into the 12th District, although Congressman Rodney Davis was alone in the 15th District. But the far-suitable Miller seemingly made the decision she experienced a improved shot of remaining in Congress if she ran for reelection in the 15th in opposition to Davis, who is a lot more reasonable. In the meantime, in excess of in the 16th District, Congressmen Darin LaHood and Adam Kinzinger have been also double-bunked, a circumstance that was only settled when Kinzinger resolved not to request reelection.
As a consequence, Democrats could maintain 14 of Illinois’s 17 congressional seats immediately after the 2022 election. That’s 82 % of seats, even however they’ll likely earn a lot less than 60 % of the state’s well known vote. That is possible only for the reason that of how many Republican votes are “wasted” less than the new map — possibly mainly because they’re becoming forged in a district that is by now safely and securely pink or due to the fact they are outnumbered by Democratic votes. Both way, all those votes do not count towards a gain.
Dependent on the 2020 presidential election outcomes, this map wastes 1.9 million Republican votes. Which is almost twice the number of Democratic votes that are squandered under the map.
Theoretically, if Republicans and Democrats had the exact amount of squandered votes in Illinois, Republicans would acquire 2.2 much more congressional seats than underneath a gerrymander of this caliber. By that measure, Illinois is the worst gerrymander in the region drawn by Democrats.
Illinois’s intense gerrymander is a huge part of the rationale Democrats have attained seats from redistricting nationwide this yr. But it could also backfire. In buy to draw so several blue seats, Democrats had to distribute their voters thin, leaving some districts with only a little Democratic lean. If Republicans have a powerful 2022 election, they could finish up successful not only their three properly crimson seats but also those people light-weight-blue seats. This gerrymander could close up becoming the major blunder in Illinois considering the fact that Mrs. O’Leary’s cow knocked above that lantern.
To be certain, this map will most possible help Democrats in their quest to maintain onto the Dwelling. But it is also doable that they’ve bitten off much more than they can chew.
